Charts and Analysis November 19, 2018



The pair was struggling to breakout of the downtrend. The draft negotiation deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom was already approved by UK’s Ministers and Parliament, which signals the eventual departure of UK from EU. Though the negotiation was a win-win situation, the EU will lose a member with the biggest economy in the block. Turkey was still recovering from the recent slump in its currency, which saw a decline of 1/3 of its value. Histogram’s bullishness was not enough to make a rally, and the 13-EMA and 21-EMA was flat, and no sign of price reversal is expected on the following days.


The pair was expected to go lower in the following days. ASEAN Summit was held in Papua New Guinea, the poorest nation among ASEAN countries, and leaders from ASEAN nations including China, Japan and the United States was invited, to tackle issues, particularly with the trade war between the United States and China, and the increasing militarization of South China Sea, a contested water among Asian countries. Chinese President Xi Jinping was present in the event, while the United States sent Mike Pence, U.S. Vice President. Investors were disappointed that President Donald Trump didn’t attend the event since ASEAN comprised 1/3 of Global trades. This should have been Trump’s way of showing its allies that US was doing something to counter China’s aggression.


The pair was still intact on the down trend. The US Dollar was expected to go lower as part of the price normalization after the Turkish Lira lost 1/3 of its value after accusing a U.S. Pastor of trying to conspire against the Turkish Government, which put strain on its relationship with the United States. The relationship between the two countries was restored after the U.S Pastor was freed and cooperation among them was needed after a U.S Resident and  Washington Post Journalist was killed in Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. Jamal Khashoggi was a Saudi citizen and a critic of crown prince MbS (Mohammed bin Salman). The Histogram, 13-EMA, and 21-EMA shows no sign of reversal.


The pair was showing a small upward movement on the accumulation stage to complete the pattern. The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as part of its monetary tightening after the US grows in the  fastest pace since 2006. This will make the US Dollar to strengthen against major currencies. An interest rate in the United States will greatly affect the Emerging Markets, particularly the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. Histogram supported the slow accumulation of the pair while the 13-EMA and 21-EMA shows that the price can further go up.

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