According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), nine out of ten Ukrainians might suffer poverty and high economic vulnerability if the war continues for another year; it will wipe out two decades of economic achievements.
UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner said his organization was working with the Kyiv administration; together, they want to avert a worst-case scenario in which the economy collapses. Its goal was to give financial transfers to households to buy food and avoid leaving while maintaining essential services.
“The economy would implode at the end of the scenario. And this might lead to up to 90% of people living or close to being in poverty. In a video interview from New York, he stated that the poverty line is the purchasing power of $5.50 to $13 per person per day.
$100 Billion In Structure Lost
Oleg Ustenko, Ukraine’s senior economic adviser, warned last Thursday that invading Russian forces had destroyed at least $100 billion in infrastructure; another half of the country’s enterprises have shut down altogether.
UNDP is looking at “tried and true” programs that it has utilized in previous violent situations. He described the logistical hurdles as “serious but not insurmountable.”
“Some of the recent World Bank and International Monetary Fund statements in terms of credit lines and funds that are being made available would assist Ukrainian authorities in being able to deploy such a program,” he added.
According to the UNDP estimate, a $250 million per month emergency cash transfer program would cover partial income losses; however, this will only apply to 2.6 million individuals who are likely to slip into poverty. A more ambitious temporary basic income scheme, costing $430 million per month, would offer $5.50 per day for each individual.
The IMF predicted that Ukraine’s GDP would collapse by 10% in 2022 due to Russia’s invasion; however, the situation might worsen dramatically if the conflict continues.
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