China’s economic growth would likely fall to 5.0 percent in 2022 because further COVID-19 outbreaks and faltering global recovery would put more pressure on the central bank to loosen policies further.
The projected growth rate for 2022 is lower than the 5.2 percent predicted by economists, implying that the government will have difficulty meeting this year’s 5.5 percent objective. After that, growth should accelerate to 5.2 percent in 2023. GDP rose 4.4 percent in the first quarter from a year ago; it beat the fourth-4.0 quarter’s percent owing to a strong start in the first two months.
Analysts predict that China’s efforts to manage its largest COVID epidemic since the coronavirus was first found in the city of Wuhan in late 2019 might hamper March activities.
Decline Has Now Started, More to Come
In a report, analysts at Societe Generale (OTC: SCGLY) stated, “March activity data is likely to have shown a considerable decline, but that would only be the tip of the iceberg, given the economically harmful lockdowns just started in mid-March.”
“However, because of the infrastructure drive, the reporting techniques, and the surprisingly good figures observed in January and February, real GDP growth may escape going below 4%.” According to the survey, quarterly growth should drop to 0.6 percent in the first quarter from 1.6 percent in October-December.
According to the survey, quarterly growth should drop to 0.6 percent in the first quarter from 1.6 percent in October-December. On April 18, at 0200 GMT, the government will disclose first-quarter GDP figures and March activity data.
GDP grew and reached its fastest rate in a decade in 2021. Still, progress slowed significantly last year; it was dragged down by debt difficulties in the housing sector and anti-virus efforts that harmed consumer confidence and spending. Policymakers concentrated last year on reducing property and debt concerns, exacerbating the economic recession. This year, the government has announced further economic stimulus, including an increase in municipal bond issuance to support infrastructure projects and tax cuts for companies.