Here are the latest market charts and analysis for today. Check them out and know what’s happening in the market today.
After losing steam from its December 23 peak, the USDRON pair slipped steeply and now is very close to the 200-day moving average, with the dollar weakening and possibly recording the lowest annual move in 2019, rising only 0.24% for the year after its weakness this month reversed early gain. The easing trade war concerns has boosted trade deal hopes and pumped up investor confidence, therefore decreasing demand for safe-haven assets including the US dollar. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the interim trade deal between Washington and Beijing could be signed on January 15 at the White House, although there is still confusion surrounding the details of the trade deal. Meanwhile, China said that it has been in close communication with the US about the Phase One trade agreement. The dollar recorded a strong 2019 before this month thanks to the outperformance of the US economy.
The pair has managed to trade in the green near the end of the year, potentially ending a strong downward spiral for the rate as the Norwegian krone kept getting stronger. During its last meeting, the central bank of Norway left its interest rates unchanged as well as its policy rate outlook. On the economic indicator front, the country’s housing market is now stabilizing after nearly eight years of uninterrupted growth. The inflation-adjusted house price index rose slightly by 0.69% during the year to the third quarter of 2019. This comes after a year-on-year decline of 0.45% in the second quarter of the year and a growth of 0.04% in the first quarter. The slowdown can be connected to the implementation of stricter mortgage rules on January 1, 2017, which were aimed at restraining house prices in Oslo. The Norges Bank kept the key rate at 1.5% in October after a 25-basis point hike in September.
The pair managed a pullback after two consecutive sessions of steep fall below the 50-day moving average. The New Year’s Day celebration would mean almost zero trading volume for the next days, but the trajectory of the price points toward the downside. A recent poll showed that central Europe’s main currencies may struggle to gain firm footing in the coming year. The Hungarian forint is expected to stay near record lows. The slowing growth contributes to the weakness in the region’s currencies, which have already suffered through much of the year by the increasing global risks such as the prolonged US-China trade war. Adding to the risks is the unclear future of the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union. The Hungarian forint has also weakened by the central bank’s loose monetary policy stance as its interest rates are recorded as the lowest in the region. Since the start of the year, the currency has already lost more than 3%.
The pair still trades near record lows, with the recent attempt of the euro to gain against the Russian currency being rejected quickly even before it reaches the 50-day moving average line. Bearish sentiment continues to dominate the pair in favour of the Russian ruble. For geopolitics, Ukraine and Russia struck a last-minute deal for the transit of Russian gas to the European market through Ukrainian territory. The vice president of the European Union Maros Sefcovic has welcomed the conclusion of the deal, as well as the interconnection agreement between Ukraine and Slovakia. The deal came just 24 hours before the current transit contract expires on Tuesday, and it eases the European fears of an interruption in Russian gas supplies. Russia delivers about 40% of its European gas deliveries through pipelines that cross Ukraine. Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz described the deal as a hard-won compromise.