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The pair will continue to go lower in the following days. New Zealand is expected to gain the most benefit after the United Kingdom named the country as the first to express their interest in making trading relations with the UK, following the re-opening of the Irish Embassy in New Zealand. New Zealand is also a member of the ratified CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership), which was seen to further help boost its economy. Together with Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, they banned Chinese technology, Huawei, over its 5G equipment citing security concerns, which will limit China’s aggression over the Asia Pacific. The United Kingdom, on the other hand, was struggling to pass the deal negotiated by UK Prime Minister Theresa May with the European Union. PM May survived the recent leadership challenged that will give her the time to convince the UK Parliament over her Brexit deal. Histogram and EMAs 13 and 21 were showing divergence, a bearish signal.
The pair is seen to trade below MA 50 following the impending “Death Cross”. Turkey had released the controversial US Pastor charged with terrorism to reconcile with the United States after Saudi citizen and journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi Consulate in Turkey. But Trump refused to sanction the kingdom even after the CIA found evidence linking the Saudi Royal Family with the killing, which signals that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) was behind the killing, citing the importance of US-KSA relationship. This triggered Turkey to pivot to China and strengthen the cooperation between the two countries. Histogram and EMAs 13 and 21 were about to reverse.
The pair is seen to bounce back from MA 200. The European Union is waiting for the President-Elect Jail Bolsonaro to proceed with the talks regarding the EU-Mercosur (South Common Market) Deal to proceed. Mercosur is an economic and political bloc comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela, created during a period when longtime rivals Argentina and Brazil were seeking to improve relations. However, Bolsonaro, which is a Nationalist and dubbed as “the Brazilian Trump”, which is set to assume the office on January 01, 2019, wants to pursue a bilateral trade agreement rather than a multilateral one, a move similar with Trump. Bolsonaro wants Brazil to become a continent leader, but the Mercosur was already divided due to recession in Argentina, corruption in Venezuela, and migration in Paraguay and Uruguay.
The pair is expected to go lower in the following days to complete the “Head and Shoulder” formation. Brazil’s Bolsonaro, which will be inaugurated on January 01, 2019, is expected to lead and integrate South America, a move similar to Trump’s integration of North America through the ratification of USMCA (United States, Mexico, Canada). Bolsonaro will leverage South America, as seen with prolonging the EU-Mercosur Deal, increasing its trade agreement with China, and closer ties with the United States, which has the potential to revive Latin America’s economy. MAs 50 and 200 was about to enter the “Death Cross”, while Histogram and EMAs 13 and 21 is about to reverse.