The dollar rebounded Monday and broke through some previously identified areas after a week full of data releases and rate-setting central bank meetings, including the Bank of England and the Fed.
The immediate attention was on the GDP and inflation figures for the eurozone and the specifics of the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s involvement, both of which were coming later on Monday. The dollar increased 0.57% versus the Japanese yen to 148.2, the euro fell 0.5% to $0.9919, and the sterling fell 0.56% to $1.1549 as the currency’s earlier-in-the-month weakness persisted.
Predictions on the Dollar Movement
Predictions are rising that the U.S. Fed will announce a less aggressive future program of rate rises at its policy meeting that begins on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the dollar is in for a monthly loss in October, its first since May and only the second this year. However, this story lost momentum by the end of last week, and it still had trouble on Monday.
The Fed would have to deliver a strong signal that it plans to halt rate rises and sound more hesitant about the need for additional tightening to spark a second step lower for the U.S. dollar in the next week, according to MUFG strategists. Some slowing of rate hikes is already priced into the market. After the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the Fed should announce a further 75 basis point (bp) rate increase. Investors awaited eurozone GDP and CPI data at 1000 GMT on Monday after the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points to stem last week’s rising inflation.
The Japanese FX intervention numbers for October should come at 1000 GMT. According to analysts, the government may have interfered earlier in the month to strengthen the yen.