Sat, June 15, 2024

EUR/USD Drops 0.2% Weekly, Rises 1.7% Monthly

Euro (EUR)

Quick Look:

  • EUR/USD pair dropped 0.2% this week but rose 1.7% over the past month.
  • Trendline support at $1.1139, with no major resistance until $1.0883.
  • US PMI Services Index up to 54.8; employment index up to 49.4. ECB rate cut likely in June, driven by strong wage growth in Germany.

The EUR/USD currency pair has experienced a slight decline this week, dropping by 0.2%. However, it has shown a positive trend over the past month, increasing by 1.7%. Buyers are now targeting the daily resistance levels, seeking to push the pair higher in the coming days.

Regarding monthly support, the EUR/USD pair finds its trendline support at $1.1139, indicating a robust immediate uptrend. Despite this positive movement, there is no significant monthly resistance until $1.0883. On a daily scale, resistance levels are at $1.0883 and $1.0920. The long-term downtrend remains a factor influencing the pair’s overall movement.

H1 Support at $1.0885, Resistance at $1.0883

The hourly chart shows trendline support at $1.0885, aligning closely with the daily target resistance at $1.0883. Support in the hourly timeframe ranges between $1.0818 and $1.0822. These levels are crucial for short-term traders to navigate the pair’s fluctuations.

Financial institutions have varied forecasts for the EUR/USD. Wells Fargo predicts the pair will reach 1.06 by the end of Q3 and rise to 1.10 by Q2 2025. Standard Chartered offers a more conservative 12-month view, anticipating a level of 1.05.

MUFG: Employment Index Rebounds to 49.4

Analysts at MUFG highlight the challenges facing the EUR/USD pair. This has not yet occurred despite expectations of a prolonged period of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve boosting the dollar. They assert that incoming data will shape monetary policies post-summer, potentially leading to rate cuts from both the ECB and the Fed. Wells Fargo analysts also believe the correlation between the Fed’s policy and the dollar’s direction will persist. They anticipate the dollar strengthening in the short term but foresee depreciation pressures building once the Fed pivots to rate cuts, leading to a downtrend through most of 2025.

MUFG analysts further comment on the employment index, noting its recent rebound from 47.3 to 49.4, which remains below the critical 50-level, indicating a weakening labour market. They expect the June rate cut to proceed, with another likely to be skipped in July.

US PMI Services at 54.8, Employment Index at 49.4

In the United States, the PMI Services Index has risen to 54.8 from 51.3, while the employment index has improved to 49.4 from 47.3. The Federal Reserve minutes indicate that inflation has not retreated further, maintaining pressure on monetary policy decisions. In the Euro Area, expectations for an ECB rate cut are centred on June. Regarding the German economy, ING comments suggest a cautious recovery driven by strong wage growth and a positive inventory cycle. However, this does not imply a full return to economic stability.

Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair will continue to be influenced by these economic indicators and central bank policies. Traders and investors should closely monitor these factors to effectively navigate the currency’s movements.

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