Sun, June 16, 2024

Gold Drops to $2,411 as Fed and Trade Tensions Rise

Gold

Quick Look:

  • Gold prices dip to $2,411, following recent record highs.
  • FOMC minutes and Fed’s Goolsbee speech key for rate movement insights.
  • Tariff hikes on Chinese goods add market uncertainty, bolstering gold demand as a haven.

Wednesday is a significant day for gold traders as they closely monitor the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. These minutes will provide vital clues on future interest rate movements, potentially influencing market sentiment. A speech by Fed’s Goolsbee will offer further insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies.

Recent developments have injected uncertainty into the market. On Tuesday, the United States announced tariff hikes on Chinese goods, prompting China to consider increasing tariffs on imported cars with large-displacement engines. This escalation in US-China trade tensions has, paradoxically, provided some support to gold prices, given renewed demand from central banks and Asian buyers seeking safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester has stated that maintaining restrictive rates is not a concern, citing the robust jobs market. Boston Fed President Susan Collins echoed a sentiment of gradual progress towards a lower interest rate adjustment, while Chair Jerome Powell hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024.

Gold’s Technical Outlook Bullish Despite Dollar Strength

These cautious positions from Fed officials have bolstered the US dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and weighing on precious metals. Despite this, technical analysis suggests that gold maintains a constructive outlook. The metal is holding above the 100-period EMA on the 4-hour timeframe, with the RSI around 63.00, indicating sustained bullish momentum.

Financial markets, guided by tools such as the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, anticipate the first rate cut in September, with two additional reductions of a quarter percentage point each by year-end. This forecast underpins a complex interplay between market sentiment and technical indicators.

Technical Targets $2,450 Upside, $2,400 Support Level

From a technical standpoint, gold’s first upside target was $2,450. Further targets include $2,465, marking the upper boundary of the ascending trend channel, and the psychological barrier at $2,500. On the downside, initial support levels appeared at $2,400 to $2,405, with subsequent targets at $2,378 and the critical 100-period EMA support at $2,364.

The market overview indicates that concerns over high US interest rates drove the recent retreat in gold prices to $2,411. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to shed light on future rate movements, potentially influencing gold’s trajectory. The hawkish stance from Fed officials has strengthened the dollar, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Gold Forecast: Down 0.17% to $2,417, Support at $2,410

In the forecast, gold is projected to trade down by 0.17% to $2,417.070. Support stood at $2,410, with technical indicators highlighting a pivot point at $2,411.14. Resistance levels are set at $2,420.20, $2,430.80, and $2,448.96, while support levels include $2,402.41, $2,389.63, and $2,373.74. The 50-day EMA is $2,388.69, and the 200-day EMA is $2,329.92. A 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,411 suggests potential fluctuations, with a candle formation above indicating an uptrend and a bearish engulfing candle below signalling a downtrend.

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