Mon, July 22, 2024

Oil Prices Jump as Chinese Retail Sales Exceed Expectations

Oil prices and geopolitical risks, crude

Quick Look:

  • Robust May sales data from China drove a significant rally in oil prices on June 18, 2024.
  • Heightened risks from Ukrainian drone strikes and potential Israel-Hezbollah conflict have bolstered oil prices.
  • An unexpected increase in U.S. crude stocks led to a slight dip in oil prices on June 19, 2024.

On June 18, 2024, oil prices experienced a significant rally driven by unexpectedly strong retail sales data from China for May. This economic indicator surpassed forecasts, suggesting a surge in consumer spending. Despite this positive development, China’s industrial output and fixed asset investment data fell short of expectations. This highlights ongoing challenges in the broader economy. Bob Yawger, the executive director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, suggested that the price surge might primarily be due to speculators covering short positions.

Global Markets React to Mixed Chinese Economic Data

Analysts highlighted the broader implications of China’s economic performance. Tamas Varga of PVM underscored the global significance of China’s economy, noting that any economic downturn in China typically reverberates worldwide. However, the recent data presented an exception to this trend, with the market responding positively despite mixed signals.

Ryan McKay, a senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, commented on the market’s recovery from a recent downturn instigated by OPEC+ actions. He cautioned that concerns about market balances in the fourth quarter and beyond could limit substantial price increases.

Oil Terminal Fire, Israel-Hezbollah Tensions Boost Prices

Geopolitical tensions flared as a Ukrainian drone strike set fire to an oil terminal at a major Russian port. Concurrently, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz issued a warning about a potential “all-out war” with Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Market strategist Yeap Jun Rong from IG noted that the heightened geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, have supported oil prices despite economic uncertainties.

On June 19, 2024, oil prices slipped due to concerns over geopolitical tensions and a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude futures dropped by $0.17 to $85.16 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell by $0.22 to $81.35 per barrel. The American Petroleum Institute reported a rise in U.S. crude stocks by 2.264 million barrels for the week ending June 14, contrary to analysts’ expectations of a 2.2 million barrel draw. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.077 million barrels, whereas distillate stocks rose by 538,000.

Mixed U.S. Data and Global Sentiment Impact on Oil Prices

On June 19, 2024, ANZ Research highlighted a broader risk-on sentiment across global markets that supported crude oil prices. Additionally, mixed U.S. economic data for May has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. Fed officials remain cautious, seeking further evidence of cooling inflation and potential warning signs from the strong labour market. They are contemplating rate cuts by year-end.

The Energy Information Administration will release the official U.S. stock data at 1500 GMT. It will provide further insights into inventory levels and market dynamics.

While strong retail sales in China have buoyed prices, concerns about future market balances and geopolitical tensions remain pivotal factors influencing the market’s direction. As investors await further data and developments, the interplay between these various elements will likely dictate the trajectory of oil prices in the near term.


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