Since October, the USD weakened significantly as the Fed delayed its rate rises. Currently, it intends to cease after the next boost, worth 25 basis points (bps), on Wednesday. The UYSD has been losing ground versus most major currencies. However, it remains positive against the Canadian dollar.
The USD/CAD fell during the majority of March, lasting until the middle of April. However, the 200 SMA (purple) persisted as support on the daily chart. Since then, the price has reversed and risen. Despite the volatility in the foreign exchange markets, this pair remained relatively unchanged last week. The USD/CAD exchange rate went up and down, with a peak at about 1.3668.
We had a solid bullish advance throughout the beginning part of the week as crude Oil fell down. Though this pair then reversed back down as Oil became bullish in the last two days. This lack of clarity may be attributable to market concern following the USD’s mixed numbers last week. The market saw the USD/CAD increase by about 2.6% in less than 10 trading sessions before giving the gains back.
Given the shaky market sentiment and growing concerns about a potential recession, high-risk currencies may underperform in the short term. Potentially, it might harm the Canadian dollar. Against this backdrop, USD/CAD is likely to climb more in the coming weeks.
USD/CAD index expected to rise from March’s low
USD/CAD must break over the confluence resistance around 1.3645 to confirm a bullish situation. At this critical technical barrier, short-term trendline resistance intersects with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March/April retreat. If buyers manage to break over this barrier, they may be emboldened to go for 1.3700 and higher.
If USD/CAD doesn’t go through at current levels and bears seize control of market action, the first support level to monitor will stand at 1.3580. It corresponds to the 50-day simple moving average. If the market breaches this level of support, traders will anticipate the next negative target to be near the psychological level of 1.3500.