Sun, June 16, 2024

USD/CHF at 0.9150 Amid Fed Signals and Middle East Risks

Washington: Swiss franc bills. USD/CHF

Quick Look:

  • USD/CHF at 0.9150, supported by hawkish Fed signals and strong US economic data.
  • The market anticipates Fed rate cuts starting in September, with a 53% chance noted.
  • Durable goods orders were up by 0.7% in April, Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 69.1 in May.
The USD/CHF currency pair is currently trading at 0.9150. It maintains a positive outlook due to recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and robust US economic data. However, potential geopolitical risks in the Middle East may boost the Swiss Franc, limiting the upside potential for the pair.

Key Events: Fed Rate Cut, SNB Speech, Q1 Swiss GDP

The market is closely watching several key events this week. These will influence the USD/CHF pair in the coming days. The US Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates starting from the September meeting. Moreover, market participants are keenly awaiting a Tuesday speech from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan. It could provide further insights into the SNB’s monetary policy stance. Additionally, the Swiss government will release Switzerland’s GDP data for the first quarter, offering a clearer picture of the Swiss economy’s performance.

In the words of analysts, “The hawkish signals from Fed policymakers continue to underpin the Greenback.” This sentiment is reflected in the financial markets, where the CME FedWatch tool indicates a 53% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, a decrease from 64% a week ago.

US Durable Goods Up 0.7%, Consumer Sentiment at 69.1

Recent US economic data has been stronger than expected, contributing to the US Dollar’s strength. Durable goods orders increased by 0.7% month-on-month in April, following a revised 0.8% increase in March. This contrasts sharply with the market consensus, which had forecast a decline of 0.8%. Furthermore, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 69.1 in May, up from 67.4 in April, surpassing the estimated 67.5.

USD/CHF Neutral: Watch 0.9157 Resistance, 0.9077 Support

The intraday bias for USD/CHF remains neutral. The recent pullback from 0.9223 appears to have been completed, suggesting that further movement will be determined by whether the pair can break through key support and resistance levels. A move above 0.9157 could see a retest of 0.9223, while a drop below 0.9077 would likely lead to a retest of 0.8987. A further decline below 0.8987 might extend the fall to 0.8883, marking the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8332 to 0.9223 uptrend.

USD/CHF Outlook: Fed Signals vs. Geopolitical Risks

Looking at the medium-term trends, the price actions from the 0.8332 bottom are part of a corrective pattern within the broader downtrend originating from the 2022 high of 1.0146. A rejection by the 0.9243 resistance level and a subsequent break of the 38.2% retracement at 0.8883 would strengthen the medium-term bearish outlook.

Conversely, a decisive break above 0.9243 While the USD/CHF pair benefits from positive US economic data and hawkish Fed signals, geopolitical risks and upcoming key events in Switzerland add layers of complexity to its trajectory. Traders and investors must stay alert to these developments as they unfold.

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