Sat, December 02, 2023

Wheat In Decline as Hopes Are High for Ukraine’s Export


Tuesday saw a decline in Chicago wheat and corn futures as grain exports from Ukraine resumed despite Russia’s suspension of participating in an export deal for a secure shipping route from Ukrainian ports.

Soybeans increased expectations of increased U.S. export sales to China. At 1138 GMT, the most actively traded wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade was down 1% to $8.73-1/4 a bushel. Meanwhile, corn was down 0.3% to $6.89-1/4 a bushel. A bushel of soybeans now costs $14.34-1/2, up 1.0%.

After Russia withdrew from a deal allowing Ukraine to transit grains and other foods through a secure Black Sea shipping route, markets soared on Monday. However, after vessel departures on Monday, more grain tankers left Ukrainian ports on Tuesday.

What Do Experts Predict?

According to Matt Ammermann, commodity risk manager at StoneX, wheat and maize are weakening today on concerns the secure shipping channel for Ukraine’s exports may not be halted but may continue in some form. Markets are paying close to Russian President Putin’s announcement that his country is suspending but not abandoning its membership in the secure shipping channel. In the meantime, ships carrying grain cargoes from Ukraine have been sailing today despite the Russian action. But there is no clear picture of what is happening since the situation is so fluid.

Wheat declines were minimal after the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Monday that the drought hurt the U.S. winter wheat crop. In anticipation of increased Chinese demand, soybean prices are strengthening, according to Ammermann. With protest road blockages set up following the presidential election, the political climate in Brazil is also receiving some attention. However, discussing any serious damage to Brazil’s soybean shipments could be too soon.


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