Quick Look:
- The Australian dollar rose 0.37% to 0.62254 after a recent 2.2% drop.
- Employment slowdowns, as only 7,200 jobs appeared in March, cooling labour market signals.
- RBA rate decision pending; Next meeting on May 7, influenced by Q1 CPI figures.
The Australian Dollar saw a modest recovery, increasing by 0.37% to 0.62254 after a notable 2.2% decline over the preceding three days. This uptick comes as the currency lingers near five-month lows, propelled by market speculation surrounding the prospective trajectory of monetary policies in Australia.
Australian Dollar Slows: March Jobs Rate at 7,200
Recent employment figures for March in Australia indicated a growth of only 7,200 jobs. Therefore indicates a pretty sharp slowdown from the previous month’s gain of 116,500. This cooling in the job market is increasing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might consider a rate cut if the trend continues. The unemployment rate for March is projected to rise slightly to 3.9% from 3.7%.
RBA Holds Rate at 4.35%, Eyes Q1 CPI Impact
The RBA has kept its cash rate steady at 4.35% over its last three meetings. The financial community is looking forward to the next meeting on May 7. The forthcoming first-quarter CPI figures are especially significant, as they are expected to play a critical role in the next rate decision. Currently, headline CPI is at 3.4%, with core inflation slightly reduced to 3.9% from a previous 4.1%.
US Growth Strong; Fed Rate Cut Unlikely Before 2025
Contrasting with the Australian Dollar’s situation, the US economy displays robust growth, leading to revised expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. According to Fed Chair Powell, with inflation continuing to outpace targets, the anticipated rate cuts may not occur until 2025. This announcement influenced a drop in US treasury yields. Moreover, it adjusted the outlook in Fed fund futures, now showing a 54.8% likelihood of steady rates until at least July.
Australian Dollar Faces Resistance, Oil Drops to Below $83
From a technical standpoint, the Australian Dollar to the US Dollar faces resistance at 0.6437 and 0.6472. Furthermore, the support is forming around 0.6413 and 0.6378. The crude oil market reacted to these broader economic signals, with prices falling 3% to just below $83 per barrel. The market’s technical indicators suggest a bearish trend toward the $80 – $81 area, underscored by an oversold condition on the RSI.
As the global economic landscape evolves, investors and policymakers closely monitor these developments, likely to influence market dynamics and currency valuations in the coming weeks.