Coronavirus Vaccine and its Impact on the Global Economy

Private as well as governmental organizations are working hard to create the coronavirus vaccine. American multinational pharmaceutical corporation Pfizer thinks it will have enough data to ask the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to authorize its potential vaccine in October. However, most experts think that it’s unlikely but not impossible to prepare a vaccine ahead of the U.S. election. Nevertheless, the coronavirus vaccine won’t be enough to cure the global economy due to several reasons.

Interestingly, there are at least seven candidates in phase three trials. Notably, it is very likely that at least one of them will successfully emerge in the upcoming months. Pharmaceutical companies are working round the clock to develop effective treatments for the disease.

The coronavirus vaccine will play an important role. However, there are reasons why it could take time to get the economy back on track. Unfortunately, vaccines are typically not 100% effective. Moreover, there will be a limited number of doses to go around.

Another challenge is distribution. People should take into account that distribution could be a problem, not only between countries but within the countries as well. This is not the end of the story. It will be quite hard to convince every person to take the vaccine. Practically, in every country in the world, there is a group of people who are against vaccines and it will be all but impossible to change their opinion.

The global economy and various scenarios

Importantly, it would be wrong to assume that a coronavirus vaccine will transform the economic outlook for next year. People should remember that there many questions regarding the vaccine.

Best-case scenario, companies will be able to develop a highly effective vaccine that is produced and distributed quickly. However, there is another option as well. For example, a less effective vaccine that faces significant production and distribution challenges. Moreover, that vaccine would be in relatively short supply in 2021.

Furthermore, in most cases in between, it is likely that some containment measures, including social distancing and restrictions on some foreign travel, will remain in place for at least some time.

The World Health Organization prefers a vaccine to be at least 70% effective. Nonetheless, it has set a minimum threshold for a coronavirus vaccine at 50%. That means the vaccine will not protect all people.

Another issue is how to distribute the vaccine. Notably, figures from developers suggest 1 billion doses may be available this year, with another 7 billion ready for distribution in 2021. However, the numbers mentioned above assume multiple vaccines will gain approval.

There are other challenges as well. For example, countries around the world, do not have enough specialized needles and syringes. Moreover, the World Health Organization does not expect widespread vaccination until the middle of 2021.

Furthermore, as stated above many people are reluctant to take a vaccine. In Europe as well as other parts of the world, many people are against the vaccines. It will be quite hard to persuade them.

Private and governmental organizations should work together to develop an effective vaccine as soon as possible. However, the state of the global economy is far from being ideal. Thus, even an effective vaccine won’t cure the global economy without additional steps.