Middle East Crisis: Implication for Global Commodity

The Middle East crisis has again grabbed the world’s attention, and its potential consequences extend far beyond the region’s borders. The World Bank’s October 2023 Commodity Markets Outlook report cautioned on the Middle East conflict’s impact on the global economy.

Escalating Conflict and Global Commodity Prices

The World Bank report underscores the potential global repercussions of an escalated Middle-East crisis, akin to past conflicts’ impact. In such severe scenarios, a disruption of oil supply by 3-5 million barrels per day could lead to a staggering 21-35% increase in oil prices.

This increase in oil prices would also ripple effect on natural gas prices, affecting Middle Eastern capitals and countries worldwide. The baseline oil forecast at $90 per barrel might surge to $102 or even escalate to $157 per barrel. Therefore, causing widespread concerns about energy costs and their impact on Middle East markets and the global economy.

Middle East Crisis: Humanitarian Toll and Economic Resilience

The Middle East crisis has not only taken a devastating toll on human lives but also threatens economic stability. As of now, we have lost over 9,400 lives, affecting many more. The international community is closely monitoring the situation, particularly Israel’s expanded ground operations in Gaza.

However, it is worth noting that the global economy is better equipped to handle crude oil price shocks today than in the 1970s. Diversifying supply sources and leveraging institutions like the oil futures market and the International Energy Agency enhance resilience in crises. Nevertheless, Ayhan Kose, World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist, warns of the inevitable increase in food prices if oil prices continue to rise.

In conclusion, the Middle East crisis underscores the fragility of global commodity markets and the importance of sustainable peace and stability in the Middle East for the region and the entire world. In these challenging times, global economies face tests, relying on international cooperation to mitigate potential fallout in commodity prices.