Nat. Association for Business Economics and U.S. Economy

The U.S. has the largest economy in the world. Current economic expansion is the longest one in modern U.S. history. Hopefully, the U.S. economy will continue to grow in 2020 as well.

On Monday, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released a survey that supports this position. According to the respondents, America’s gross domestic product the complete measure of the nation’s economy will grow by 1.1% by 2% in 2020. It is important to mention that 67% of the participants agree on this topic.

In total, 97 NABE members took part in this survey. This survey was conducted in late December and early January. Moreover, the number of respondents who think that the economy will grow by more than 3% also increased in comparison with the results from October. Several months ago, 20% of the participants expected the U.S. economy to achieve such feat and now the number reached 30%.

Ken Simonson, is a chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America and a NABE spokesperson. According to Simonson, several good news affected this survey.

The United States, Mexico, and Canada neared competition on a trade agreement. Moreover, the market finished the year on a high note. Also, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep the interest rates low.

This survey took place ahead of the trade deal between the U.S. and China. This month, the U.S. and China signed the phase one trade deal. However, the information regarding the upcoming deal also played a role.

Moreover, fears of a recession fell as businesses are confident when it comes to the health of the U.S. economy. There are other factors as well, such as the jobs market and trade.

U.S. economy and jobs market

Currently, unemployment is at the lowest point for more than 50 years. The survey came during the record low unemployment and strong consumer confidence. Furthermore, wages and salaries increased in the fourth quarter of 2019.

However, the jobs market also experienced problems in the last quarter of 2019. For example, for the first time in a decade, hiring was in the fourth quarter. Companies continued to hire more in finance, insurance, and real estate. Meanwhile, the number of vacancies fell in the transportation and communications industries.

It is important to keep in mind that hiring became more difficult due to the very interesting factor. The number of jobs is larger compared with the number of people who are looking for a job.

Let’s have at the expectations for the job growth in the latest survey. In comparison with the previous survey, the number of economists who stated that hiring would increase in 2020 grew from 19% to 27%.

As mentioned above, several months ago, in October, the U.S. unemployment level declined to the lowest point since 1969.

The survey conducted by NABE helps to learn more about the impact of the trade war on the companies. The survey found that some industries experienced bigger problems due to tariffs. However, 61% of businesses did not sustain any damage connected with tariffs in 2019. U.S. economy continues to grow, and this is important for the global economy as well.