Quick Look:
- The NZD/USD is bullish, with key indicators like RSI and MACD showing upward momentum.
- Long-term indicators suggest a looming bearish outlook despite the current bullish swing.
- The currency pair is eyeing the 0.6070 target, with support at 0.5960 and resistance at 0.6060.
The NZD/USD currency pair is currently experiencing a bullish swing, but there are potential signs of a bearish upturn. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators suggest growing bullish momentum, while the hourly RSI indicates a possible slowdown in buying traction.
The Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) also indicate a long-term bearish prospect. During Monday’s session, the NZD/USD pair experienced a minor decline, gravitating towards the 0.6000 level. The currency pair is in a bullish swing pattern, but potential bearish movements loom. The bearish sentiment, indicated by the key SMAs, requires further validation.
RSI and MACD Indicate Bullish Trend for NZD/USD
On the daily chart, the RSI has shifted from 38 to a positive territory of 56, signalling dominant bullish momentum. The MACD also shows rising green bars, further validating the bullish sentiment. The hourly chart presents moderate fluctuations in the RSI, which currently sits at 51. The MACD displays flat red bars, indicating a reduction in positive momentum. In the broader outlook, the SMAs present a mixed forecast. The short-term outlook remains bullish, while the long-term perspective suggests a potential bearish trend, highlighted by the 100-day SMA.
NZD/USD Above 0.6000, Eyes 0.6070
The NZD/USD pair trades above the 0.6000 mark, benefiting from a positive double-bottom pattern. The next target is 0.6070, supported by the EMA50, bolsters the bullish trend. For this to continue, the currency must maintain stability above 0.6000 and 0.5980. The trading range for NZD/USD is anticipated to be between the support level of 0.5960 and the resistance level of 0.6060, indicating a bullish trend forecast.
NZD/USD Reacts to US Dollar and NFP Data
The current price of NZD/USD hovers near 0.6000 as the US Dollar steadies after a recovery. US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data was weak, heightening speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut rates from September onwards. In contrast, the DXY is above 105.00, rebounding after a correction, and the Federal Reserve’s commentary has been less hawkish, highlighting the weak labour market data.
In the US, the rate hike is now considered unlikely, with a rate cut expected later this year. The FedWatch Tool indicates a 67% chance of a rate cut in September. In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is also considering a possible rate cut from October, influenced by stubborn Q1 inflation and a weakening labour market.
The NZD/USD exhibits a bullish swing but is still surrounded by indicators pointing towards potential bearish movements.