Weekly Overview: Forex, Stocks, Crypto, Commodities Sep 10

The global markets have been unstable since the beginning of Covid-19.  The economy fluctuates day by day, causing hard-to-predict price movement. In our weekly market overview, we will summarize the general market trends in Forex, Stocks, Crypto, and Commodities that will help you make the right decisions.

Forex market weekly overview

What’s new in the Forex market? The U.S. dollar has been doing well recently. As investors continue to think about the timing of the Fed’s reduction of stimulus measures, Friday ushered in its first rising week in three weeks after the U.S. dollar rebounded from a sell-off triggered by employment data.

The U.S. dollar index remained almost unchanged on the day, at 92.541, increasing 0.49% every week. Last Friday, the index fell to its lowest level since August 3. It happened after data showed that the U.S. economy opened fewer job opportunities in seven months. It has reduced the possibility of the Fed’s upcoming asset purchase plan.

Since then, some officials have come forward to say that downscaling is still possible this year. Analysts also agree that the weak August labor report would not derail the central bank.

We should note that the employment growth was delayed not by cooling demand for workers but by labor shortages.

Data on Thursday showed that the number of new Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to the lowest level in nearly 18 months.

The euro was flat at $1.18235 on Friday and is likely to fall by 0.47% this week

The euro received some slight support overnight. That happened after the European Central Bank said it would reduce the size of emergency debt purchases in the following quarter.

In the past two quarters, the bank purchased approximately 80 billion euros worth of debt each month.

The numerical guidance for the next three months was not provided. However, analysts predicted that purchases in those months would fall to between 60-70 billion euros before the meeting.

The U.S. dollar remained almost unchanged during the day and week, at 109.71 yen. It has still been hovering in the middle of the range for the past two months.  The Australian dollar fell 0.07% to US$0.7363 against the U.S. dollar and will fall by 1.16% this week.

Stocks market weekly overview

Stock futures were lethargic in after-hours trading on Thursday. Aftermarket tensions finally led to four consecutive days of decline, which underscored investors’ increasing caution about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy.

In Thursday’s systematic trading, Wall Street fell for the fourth consecutive day. Traders have been struggling to reconcile the seemingly hot job market with the soaring coronavirus infection, which has weakened the recovery momentum.

As the more contagious variant of Delta has led to a surge in COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations, President Joe Biden announced on Thursday a series of comprehensive authorizations designed to prompt indecisive citizens to be vaccinated.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have fallen for four days, but Nasdaq’s technology stock has performed slightly better, falling for two consecutive days. Since the employment data in August last week was far below market expectations, investor sentiment has been low, eroding hopes for the fourth quarter and making September a rough start.

However, at least two employment data this week show a different picture from the August non-agricultural employment data. According to data from the Ministry of Labor, a series of records were set for vacant positions. Workers collectively resigned, and nearly 11 million positions were vacant. On Thursday, the number of new claims for unemployment benefits hit a record low during the pandemic, at 310,000, temporarily easing concerns about the economy.

On Thursday, Biden ordered all companies with more than 100 employees to require employees to be vaccinated or tested every week and announced that he intends to need all federal employees vaccinated.

More and more private employers have begun to mandate vaccinations. However, with the emergence of the Delta variant, many people have postponed their plans to return to the office.

Crypto market weekly overview

Bitcoin was recovering from the sharp sell-off on Tuesday, with prices falling more than 18%.

After reaching a 24-hour high of $47,396, the cryptocurrency is currently changing hands for about $46,840. Bitcoin has risen by more than 9% from its weekly low of $42,900 and increased by more than 61% year-to-date.

This week the market witnessed one of the classic leverage shocks of cryptocurrencies-the price rebounded from Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average.

Starting from August 20, this average has roughly acted as a support near $46,000 in the past three weeks.

After the massive sell-off on Tuesday, the market has stabilized

Relative strength and other short-term shock indicators have entered the oversold zone, and the short-term bullish market structure is intact.

The crash surprised most people. However, the losses seemed limited to the derivatives market, as long-term BTC holdings only increased during the economic downturn.

The wallet addresses holding 10 BTC have increased by 154 from the drop on Tuesday to Friday. Smaller retail investors also increased their Bitcoin holdings. The wallet addresses containing 1 Bitcoin increasing by 566 over the same period, including holding 0.1 Bitcoin or less.

Wallet addresses containing 100 BTC or more bitcoins fell sharply in the same time frame. Though, given the large fluctuations in wallets during the sell-off, it may also be attributed to short-term investors.

The spending-to-output ratio looks at profitability and losses in a specific time frame. The ratio shows that long-term holders have primarily maintained their positions. It also indicates that more significant wallet movements balance active short-term traders.

Other well-known cryptocurrencies ranked in the top 20 by market capitalization also showed a green trend, among which DOT, LINK, and AVAX achieved the highest returns within 24 hours.

Although the price of Bitcoin is currently fluctuating, the continued performance of certain altcoins (mainly SOL and ALGO) has made investors, and analysts cautiously hope that this is just a speed bump on the road to price increases.

Commodities Weekly Overview

Oil prices rose slightly. It has regained its first week of decline in three weeks, as investors assessed that China confirmed that it had released crude oil from its strategic reserves in an unprecedented intervention in the global market.

After falling 1.7% on the previous trading day, Friday’s New York futures trading price was higher than 68 U.S. dollars per barrel. Beijing has used its vast reserves to relieve the pressure of rising raw material prices. It did not provide more details, but people familiar with the statement said millions of barrels of oil were supplied to domestic refineries in July.

China’s move and its chances of doing so again have added another layer of uncertainty to the global oil market. The global oil market still struggles to deal with the effects of the rapidly spreading delta virus variant in many regions.

Additionally, producer price inflation in the world’s largest importer of raw materials accelerated sharply last month. It was due to soaring energy and metal prices.

The Chinese agency also stated that the “normalization” rotation of crude oil in national inventories is essential for reserves to play a balanced market role, indicating that it may continue to release barrels. It added that putting aids on the market through public auctions will stabilize supply and demand in the domestic market.

Due to the interruption caused by Hurricane Ida, U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week. Also, production hit the biggest drop in record. According to data from the Energy Information Administration, inventories were reduced by 1.53 million barrels. The devastating storm caused a decline of 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day.