USD/CNY Set at 7.1059, PBOC Drains 237B Yuan

Quick Look

• Today’s USD/CNY reference rate is set at 7.1059, below estimates of 7.2011.
• PBOC injects 10 billion yuan via reverse repos, with net drain of 237 billion yuan.
• USD/CNY exchange rate stabilizes at 7.20 following positive PMI data.
• The real estate and banking sectors face significant challenges.
• Upcoming Two Sessions meeting to set the tone for China’s economic policies.
• The market outlook remains neutral as USD/CNY consolidates at key technical levels.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) today set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1059. The rate came out to be significantly lower than the anticipated 7.2011. Therefore, it is demonstrating a keen effort to stabilize the Renminbi amidst global uncertainties. This adjustment, alongside the allowed trading range of plus or minus 2% from the daily rate, underscores the PBOC’s tactical approach to currency management.

The PBOC has injected 10 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repos in its latest monetary policy operation. Thereby maintaining the interest rate at 1.8%. Despite the expiration of 247 billion yuan in reverse repos, the net effect is a 237 billion yuan drain from the market. It is a clear indicator of a tightening stance aimed at balancing liquidity levels.

USD/CNY Stable at 7.20, PMI Rises to 50.9

The USD/CNY exchange rate has seen minimal movement, holding steady at 7.20. This stability is partly attributed to the recent positive PMI data, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI inching up from 50.8 to 50.9, surpassing expectations. Such data comes as a breath of fresh air, especially ahead of the critical China Two Sessions, potentially influencing future economic directives.

China’s Real Estate Banks Face Big Hurdles

China’s economic scene presents a mixed bag of progress and challenges. On one front, the manufacturing and services sectors show resilience, as indicated by the PMI figures. However, the real estate and banking sectors reveal deep-seated issues, with giants like Country Garden and Evergrande teetering on the edge of collapse and rising delinquency risks within banks, spotlighting the intricate balance the government must manage.

Two Sessions & Global PMIs: Eyes on China’s Growth

All eyes are on the upcoming Two Sessions meeting on March 5th, expected to crystallize the government’s priorities and potentially reaffirm a 5% growth target. Additionally, international indicators such as the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and PCE Inflation Data could further influence market dynamics, offering insights into global economic health and its impact on China.

USD/CNY Awaits Key Signals, Eyes on Two Sessions

The technical analysis reveals the USD/CNY pair are consolidating. It is at the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. There is an observable reduction in volatility. The Average True Range indicates this reduction. The market has a neutral outlook. This outlook is pending the outcome of the Two Sessions meeting. It reflects cautious optimism. This optimism balances between domestic economic signals and international market trends.