Quick Look:
- Wheat prices show a bearish trend, currently at $569.80.
- The market faces pressures from the strong US dollar and high Russian shipments.
- Global supply abundance could push prices down to $552.80 or $541.80.
- US dollar strength impacts the overall commodity market, lowering demand.
- Global events like Russian military actions and poor French crops affect markets.
Wheat prices are currently showing a bearish trend. The market grapples with high US dollar strength, increased Russian shipments, and an abundant global supply. Wheat prices have been pegged at $569.80, encountering significant resistance at this level. Market forecasts suggest a potential dip towards $552.80 and $541.80, provided prices stay below the key resistance point.
Wheat, Corn and Soybean Prices Dip Slightly
Corn and soybeans are also experiencing declines in the broader commodity market. Corn prices have decreased slightly by 0.2% to $4.34-1/2 per bushel, and soybean prices are down 0.1% at $11.72-3/4 per bushel. In Agricultural Consultancy Episode 3, Andrew Whitelaw commented that the wheat market is adequately supplied. Moreover, prices are projected to stay stable at current levels due to this supply situation.
US Dollar and Russian Activities Impact Global Commodities
Several significant global events are influencing commodity markets. The strength of the US dollar continues to suppress demand for US farm exports. Moreover, Russian military activities targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure pose a risk to Black Sea grain exports. Additionally, a noted decline in the condition of the French wheat crop—its poorest in four years—raises supply concerns within Europe.
China’s Import Cancellations and US’s Record Soybean Processing
In China, there are indications of potential cancellations of corn imports from Europe, and the country reported its lowest soybean imports in March for the last four years, totalling 5.54 million metric tons. Nonetheless, expectations remain high for near-record imports of cereals and oilseeds. Meanwhile, the US soybean industry hit a record with its highest monthly processing in March, although there has been a slight slowdown in daily processing rates since February.
India Buys 42,242 Tonnes Wheat; Ukraine Sows 120,000 ha Corn
In India, the wheat market has seen an influx of 84,484 tonnes, with the government purchasing almost half of this quantity. Restrictions on stock limits imposed by the government are causing concerns among flour millers about acquiring and storing grain. In Ukraine, corn sowing is underway, with 120,000 hectares planted as of April 11. Speculators in the wheat market have recently reduced their net short positions, reflecting a cautiously optimistic sentiment among traders.