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Daily Market Charts and Analysis September 30, 2021

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Here are the latest market charts and analysis for today. Check them out and know what’s happening in the market today.

EURCAD

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reaffirmed her stance on inflation. The central bank chief said that rising prices are a result of economic reopening. Her statement reflects the same position by the Federal Reserve. However, the central bank issued a blueprint for monetary tightening. On September 30, the EU’s largest economies will reveal their inflation numbers. The numbers could be a hint for the currency bloc’s consumer price index report due on Friday. In France, the monthly and annual figures failed to beat estimates. The CPI is up 2.1% YoY, which is higher than the 2.2% forecast. Meanwhile, the previous result was 1.9%. On the other hand, the month-on-month figure fell -0.2% against the -0.1% expectations. The result is the first decline in 12 months and the lowest since January 2020. The readings for German CPI are 4.2% YoY and 0.1% MoM. The pair will fall towards 1.42500 following a breakdown from the 50 and 200 MAs.

NZDJPY

The Japanese yen will regain strength in sessions following the comments by the Bank of Japan. BOJ’s chief, Haruhiko Kuroda, sees the world’s third-largest economy going back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021. The comment will shrug off disappointing economic data in recent days. Among the reports released in the last three days are CPI, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales. For headline inflation, the central bank recorded a 0.3% improvement. However, the remaining reports contrasted with the CPI growth. Industrial production fell -3.2% in the August preliminary report. Meanwhile, a 1-month forecast showed slower growth of 0.2%. The 2-month forecast is better with a 6.8% increase. On the other hand, the New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence index remains in the negative territory with -7.2 points. On the chart, analysts expect the MAs to confirm a “bearish crossover.” Meanwhile, the MACD indicator continues with its downward movement.

USDHKD

Hong Kong’s trade deficit narrowed with a -26.3 billion result on September 28. The improvement is despite the decline in exports to 25.9%. Meanwhile, the special administrative region’s imports came at 28.1%. The previous records were -34.9 billion, 26.9%, and 26.1%, respectively. A major contributor to the strong trade balance report is retail sales. In August, the inflation-adjusted sales jumped by 11.9%. The figure ended five consecutive months of decline. Also, the number is the highest since May. As for the monetary policy, the M3 Money Supply fell -3.0%. The decline is the first in 14 months. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are at 7.78140 and 7.76687. Analysts anticipate the pair to retrace similar to May 2021’s movement. Meanwhile, the MACD and Signal lines are showing signs of weakness. On September 30, the lines failed to form a “bearish crossover.” But analysts expect the pessimistic sentiment to drag price short-term.

USDSGD

The United States will release the final GDP reading for the second quarter of 2021 on September 30. Analysts expect the world’s largest economy to maintain the second initial estimate of 6.6% growth. On employment, the US initial jobless claims forecast is 335,000 against the 351,000 data previously. On the chart, the Thursday candle is a Doji, suggesting indecision among the market participants. Aside from the release of the report, investors and traders await the development of the 2022 federal budget. If Congress failed to approve a spending bill, the White House would shut down on October 01. Another concern is the US debt ceiling. Just like the budget, the proposal to increase the debt limit is pending in Congress. The Treasury would run out of money by October 18. Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the failure to approve a US debt limit increase would result in a financial crisis or, worse, recession. The indicators would lose momentum on September 30.

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