Quick Look
- EUR/USD gains traction, trading above the 55-day EMA with an upside bias.
- USD/CAD exhibits neutral intraday bias, with range trading in focus.
- GBP/USD remains neutral, with the potential for a breakout or breakdown.
- Key economic indicators and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting influence market dynamics.
- USD performance varies, showing weakness against the New Zealand Dollar.
The EUR/USD pair exhibits a promising daily outlook, indicating an upward intraday bias. It’s currently trading above its 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), positioned at 1.0832, suggesting a bullish trajectory. Resistance is noted at 1.1138, with minor support at 1.0761. A continuation of bearish pressure could prompt a retest of the 1.0694 level. This activity is seen as a corrective pattern from a high of 1.1274, following a significant rise from the 2022 low of 0.9534. The second leg of this ascent began from 1.0447, with an anticipated move towards the 1.1274 level. However, a sustained break below 1.0722 might signal the start of the third leg, potentially targeting 1.0447 or lower.
USD/CAD in Range-Bound Trading
The USD/CAD pair maintains a neutral intraday bias, continuing its range-trading behaviour. Support is found at 1.3357, with the pair aiming to resume its rebound towards 1.3897 upon a firm break above 1.3585. This pattern is part of a corrective phase from the 2022 high of 1.3976, suggesting potential support for a downturn remains above 1.2947. The broader trend indicates a possible uptrend resumption through 1.3976 from the 2021 low of 1.2005.
GBP/USD Awaits Directional Clarity
Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair navigates a neutral intraday bias amid ongoing range trading. A breakout above 1.2691 could indicate the end of the correction from 1.2826, while a decisive move below 1.2499 may signal a shift to bearish momentum. This pattern is a correction from the peak of 1.3141, following an uptrend from the 2022 low of 1.0351. The rise’s second leg, which might still be active, started from 1.2036, with its upside potentially limited by 1.3141.
Forex Market Reacts to Economic Indicators and Fed Policy
Recent movements in the Forex market have been significantly influenced by economic indicators and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. The USD has weakened, falling below 104.00, amid improved risk sentiment and responses to PMI data from key economies. Despite initial gains, the USD’s progress reversed by day’s end, with Nasdaq futures rallying by more than 1.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield, hovering around 4.3%, mirrors market responses to the Fed’s caution against premature policy easing. Amid these dynamics, the US Dollar has notably underperformed against the New Zealand Dollar, with the EUR/USD reaching towards 1.0850—its highest in nearly three weeks. Concurrently, the GBP/USD climbed above 1.2650, and the AUD/USD neared 0.6600 following PMI data releases, with the USD/JPY stabilizing above 150.00 despite weak indicators.
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