Quick Look:
- USD/CAD declined by 0.1%: Recent market events pushed the pair to the mid-1.3750s after a strong start in April.
- Diverging monetary policies and economic data from the US and Canada influence the currency dynamics.
- The pair’s break below the 30-day SMA and RSI below 50 suggest downward momentum.
The USD/CAD pair experienced a slight decline today, falling by 0.1% to rest in the mid-1.3750s. The currency pair has been under significant market scrutiny. Following a series of events that have led to heightened volatility this April.
Early in the month, the USD/CAD saw a robust rally. It has spurred a potent mix of rising US dollar strength and diminishing confidence in the Canadian dollar. The initial surge quickly met the resistance. Thereby culminating in a notable pullback from the key 1.3800 level today. Fluctuations in commodity prices have heavily influenced this recent downtrend. Specifically, WTI Crude Oil fell from its peak to $79 as of April 18.
US Dollar Dynamics
The strength observed in the US dollar has been supported by several factors, including higher-than-expected US inflation figures and strong employment data. These factors have kept market sentiments hawkish. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the challenges in reaching the Fed’s inflation target, suggesting a more extended period of restrictive monetary policy than previously anticipated.
Canadian Dollar Pressures
Conversely, the CAD has been under pressure, primarily due to the downward trajectory in oil prices and the looming possibility of interest rate cuts. The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, noted a weakening momentum in underlying inflation, with core inflation measures showing signs of easing.
Monetary Policy Divergence and Market Projections
The monetary outlook presents a diverging path between the two countries. In the US, market participants have adjusted their expectations for interest rate cuts to September from an earlier forecast in June. Conversely, Canada shows a 70% probability of interest rate reductions as early as June. This is a stark increase from previous expectations, influenced heavily by recent inflation reports.
Technical Indicators and USD/CAD Trajectory
The technical analysis reveals that the pair has recently broken below the 30-day simple moving average, a bearish signal supported by the RSI, which is currently below 50. Immediate support is identified at the 1.3711 level, marked by the 55 4-hour EMA, with further support at 1.3660.
The market outlook is bearish in the short term due to the technical breakdown observed. However, there remains potential for a resumption of the upward trend should the pair effectively breach the 1.3976 resistance level, set as the 2022 high.
While short-term prospects for the USD/CAD pair appear bearish, the long-term scenario could pivot significantly should key resistance levels be surpassed, potentially driving the pair towards new heights. Investors and traders will continue to monitor these developments closely, as shifts in monetary policy and economic indicators will likely dictate the future course of this volatile currency pair.
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