Fri, December 01, 2023

Rise of Paddy Rice: AFEX’s Hot Commodity Forecast

Commodity Exchange: Still life shot of agricultural commodities.

In the dynamic landscape of global commodities, AFEX, Africa’s premier commodities player, has unveiled its much-anticipated 2023 Crop Production report, shedding light on the future of the hot commodity in the region. The report highlights a harsh reality: rising commodity prices due to decreased production and increasing demand for processing and exports.

The Surge Unveiled

AFEX’s report, unveiled in Abuja, meticulously captures insights into six key commodities—Maise, Paddy Rice, Soybean, Sorghum, Cocoa, and Sesame. The report anticipates a widespread price increase across all commodities using farmer surveys and transaction-level data measurements. Notably, Paddy Rice is expected to experience a remarkable upswing of 34 per cent in the 2022/2023 season. This surge can be attributed to increased flooding and the recent Indian rice ban. With a baseline pricing of N353,000/mt, the report projects an ascent to N400,000/mt, stabilising at N480,000 to N500,000/mt by Q3 2023. These projections underscore a challenging landscape for commodity brokers, exchange-traded commodities, commodity ETFs, and commodity funds navigating the intricate market dynamics.

Food Insecurity Looms

Beyond the numerical projections, AFEX’s report paints a stark picture of food insecurity. The stark truth emerges as Nigeria faces a record-breaking 30.64% food inflation rate and a 5.7 million metric ton shortage. Nigeria’s Global Hunger Index score, 109th out of 125 countries, underscores a severe food security crisis. The 2023 food price surge poses a significant threat to achieving Zero Hunger by 2030, hindering progress and exacerbating challenges.

In conclusion, in light of these revelations, AFEX Nigeria’s President/CEO, Akinyinka Akintunde, stressed the urgency for substantial investments in the agricultural sector. Addressing infrastructure, logistics, and technology gaps is imperative. Therefore, as Paddy Rice emerges as the hot commodity of focus, the market dynamics, as per AFEX’s report, highlight the pressing need for strategic interventions. The unfolding scenario urges stakeholders, including commodity brokers, to closely monitor the evolving landscape. Furthermore, it explores opportunities within exchange-traded commodities, commodity ETFs, and commodity funds. The 2023 season is critical, demanding collaborative efforts to ensure economic stability and food security.


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