Here are the latest market charts and analysis for today. Check them out and know what’s happening in the market today.
As the Fed’s monetary policy has been finalized on Wednesday, the Polish zloty is now expected to regain its losses. The Narodowy Bank Polski will drive the pair lower towards December’s low of 3.61889 to form the “Head and Shoulders” formation. This was after the market noticed a lower bond purchase from the central bank of just $545.0 billion. This was 36% lower than the total bonds that investors are planning to sell on June 16. The National Bank of Poland announced earlier that it could absorb as much as 10 billion zloty or around $2.75 billion to support the economy. Analysts believe that the move signals a hawkish sentiment on one of the EU’s fastest-growing economies. Earlier in the week, Poland published an increase in consumer price index (CPI) report of 4.7% in May, which is above the 2.5% annual target by the central bank with a band of +/- 1.0%. The USDPLN pair will fail to break out from the 200-day MA at 3.77288.
The Israeli economy shrinks -6.2% in the first three (3) months of fiscal 2021. This was after the tension with Palestine cast a shadow over Tel Aviv’s recovery from the pandemic. Meanwhile, the country’s headline inflation number was 1.5%, which is in line with the Bank of Israel’s 1.0% to 3.0% range target. However, the fears of contagion from the US inflation could force Israel to tighten its monetary policy. As for the full year, analysts still see an expansion between 4.0% to 6.0% despite the decline in the GDP data in Q1 2021. Investors remain hopeful that the high inoculation rate in Israel will result in higher economic data. Tel Aviv lifted all coronavirus restrictions on June 01 as 80% of the adults were already vaccinated against the deadly virus. Also, the average daily cases are down to just 15 per day. The 50-bar moving average at 3.25918 will act as the immediate resistance area for USDILS while the MACD is expected to remain below 0.
The Federal Reserves have finally addressed all concerns by investors at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. On June 16, the US central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.25%. However, Governor Jerome Powell raised its inflation forecast for fiscal 2021 at 3.4% from 2.4% three (3) months ago. He added that the Federal Reserve is eyeing to raise interest rates twice in 2023. But analysts are optimistic that a further increase in the consumer price index (CPI), which came in at 5.0% in May would pressure the central bank to hike rates earlier. In addition to this, the labor market is seeing continued recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Last week, the number of unemployment benefit claimants fell to its lowest record since April 2020 at 376,000. Analysts expected the Thursday data to post a seventh consecutive decline in the report to 359,000. The MACD indicator points to continued growth in prices in the short term.
Demand for the South Africa rand will soar along with the increase in coronavirus cases. Experts are anticipating a third wave of the deadly virus to wreak havoc on SA’s economic recovery. On Thursday, June 17, Africa’s third-largest economy is expected to record a 99.7% increase in retail sales for April. This figure will be the largest monthly increase since reporting began in 2003. However, upcoming reports might soon start to dwindle as the government increases its restriction on public gatherings. Moreover, South Africa is lacking vaccine doses after 2 million shots from Johnson & Johnson were discarded due to contamination in the US factory. The US pharmaceutical company has set the delivery of new doses by the end of June. As for the technical, the USDZAR pair currently trades below the uptrend channel resistance line and the 50-day MA at 14.05282. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is expected to retreat following six (6) days of positive data.