Thailand’s economy likely will recover in the fourth quarter owing to strong exports and the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, but the suspension of a quarantine waiver for foreign visitors likely slowed the rebound. According to the consensus projection of 12 analysts surveyed Feb. 11-17, growth in the tourism-dependent economy returned last quarter to 0.7 % year-on-year after falling 0.3 % in the July-September period. After decreasing 1.1 %, the previous quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) was predicted to expand by a seasonally adjusted 1.4 % in the same quarter. The information will be made public on February 21.
Forecasts varied from 0.4 % to 1.9 %, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the economy’s recovery from the epidemic in Southeast Asia’s second-biggest country.
“We expect the substantial increase in merchandise exports to facilitate the economy’s gradual return to expansion in the fourth quarter,” said Nomura economist Charnon Boonnuch.
“However, we expect the rebound to be modest and very unequal, given the still-sluggish improvement in international visitor arrivals despite the border reopening in November.” Still, growth has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the recovery is fragile, with the Omicron coronavirus type spreading and putting a strain on the tourism industry.
The Pandemic Is Not Over Just Yet
Despite growing vaccination rates and the progressive loosening of worldwide travel restrictions, just a fraction of international visitors is expected this year compared to levels before COVID-19.
According to a separate poll released last month, the economy would increase 3.9 % this year and 4.1 % in 2023.
“Concerns about the Omicron epidemic, as well as the temporary suspension of the ‘Test&Go’ tourism program in late December and early January, would stymie economic recovery and push back the international tourist rebound to early 2022,” said Lattakit Lapudomkarn, an economist at Kiatnakin Phatra Securities.
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